Market Report 19/02/2019

by Karl Weinmann

Weekly Report News and Events impacting our economy

Speaking in the House of Commons on Tuesday  February 12 Teresa May framed how the ‘Back Stop’ part of the UK’s  EU withdrawal agreement clashes with MPs and how remaining a member of the EU Customs Union’ a motion Jeremy Corbyn raised in their discussions are factors of the agreement that are  preventing May’s deal from being more widely supported.

UK MPs are running out of time to decide differences and opinions about Mays deal approaching the ‘deadline Month’, on March 29 in the Article 50. Then the UK will conclude the United Kingdom’s debate about whether to Brexit the EU or Remain in the EU.

Winning Mays Brexit deal in the Commons on time might guarantee a soft Brexit not to mention passing the UK Citizen’s part of the deal into European Law. Mays deal would theoretically extinguish any hard boarder fears in Northern Ireland with the Republic of Ireland. On Tuesday Teresa May addressed Jeremy Corbyn’s’ differences in the Commons after discussions between the Prime Minister and the Labour Party Leader.

Without a ‘Brexit vote’ majority on February 27, it will bring all parties just weeks away from the deadline without sealing the only deal; Mays Deal.

The Brexit Crisis escalates as political pressure and tensions on global markets and the Sterling tightens. Factories have closed threatening thousands of jobs, a rush of imported goods are stockpiled, and the Conservative rebellion refuse to take the No Deal scenario off the table.

Prime Minister May’s speech described EU Brexit negotiations remaining stonewalled as Junker says, ‘the EU will not reopen the withdrawal agreement’, and that the House of Commons needs to see legally binding changes to the back stop which can only be achieved with changes in the withdrawal agreement. Both Junker and May agree on further negotiations.

A No Deal will cause the UK’s economy instability and volatility reverberating across the Global Markets.

Every possible Brexit outcome will have repercussions in European markets. Unpredictable price volatility of ‘too big to fail companies could have seismic effects on the UK’s economy and further afield. MPs’ are responsible for the final Brexit outcome.

‘The UK remaining a member of the EU customs union’ and ‘the conditions for a back-stop’ MP’s and EU negotiators agree on. These are the most crucial parts of the withdrawal agreement. There may be no agreement. Michel Barnier said speaking in Luxemburg on Monday “something has to give”.   However. European negotiators say they are not open to changes to the withdrawal agreement while Conservative and Labour are working together debating every possible alternative around the hard-broader.

There will be a statement about the negotiations on February 26 in the commons a day before the next amendments vote.On Tuesday the Labour Leader confirmed time was running out for Britain but lacked the usual warnings about a No Deal

On Thursday 14an amendment vote weather article 50 should be extended by at least three months won with a Majority of 222.

Drawing a line under Mays deal Labour pushed back on any chances for a Brexit stalemate, with or without an article 50 deadline extension.

On Thursday the Labour amendment – ‘A vote for a Meaningful vote by February 27 or declare a deal is no longer on the table’ Won 322 to 306, a majority of 16.

Finally, on Thursday, the Government lost the day’s last vote. The government’s motion reiterating support for the Brexit approach and noting ongoing backstop discussions. 303 to 258, losing by a majority of 45.

February 18 – This Monday is the US Presidents Day Holiday

On Tuesday the British National Statistics  release ILO Unemployment Rate (3Months) (Dec) Calculated data of unemployed workers divided by the total amount of civilians working. And the Claimant Count Rate a monthly measurement of Unemployment and average earnings data. Germany and The European Monetary Union release ZEW Surveys about the economic sentiment.

On Wednesday The US Federal Open Market Committee Meet to Hold the FOMC Minutes.

On Thursday Markit PMI (Purchasing Manager Index) data is released in France, Germany, The EU and the US. AS well as Consumer Price Index Data in Germany, France and Italy. The EU release CPI data on Friday. 

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